Price analysis 3/30: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, LUNA, SOL, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally is taking a breather near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and that has resulted in what is either a minor pullback or consolidation in BTC and select altcoins. 

In the last few days, Terraform Labs has been on a Bitcoin buying spree. The wallet address speculated to be that of Terra, has received $139 million worth of Bitcoin on March 30, taking its total to about $1.5 billion in BTC.

With Terra breathing down its neck, MicroStrategy seems to have taken up the challenge. The business intelligence firm’s subsidiary MacroStrategy has secured a $205 million loan from Silvergate, which will be used to purchase Bitcoin, cover general corporate expenses and pay the necessary fees and interest on the loan.

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Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The buying interest is not limited to the two companies. CoinShares data showed that institutional investors pumped in $193 million into digital asset investment products last week, the largest inflow since early December 2021.

With institutional investors buying in large quantities, could Bitcoin and the major altcoins break above their overhead resistance levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose to the 200-day SMA ($48,288) on March 28 but the bulls could not push the price above it. The buyers again tried to clear the overhead hurdle on March 29 but failed.

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BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will now try to pull the price to the immediate support at $45,400. If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will again attempt to thrust the BTC/USDT pair above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could start its journey to $52,000.

The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($43,531) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control.

This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could extend its stay inside the ascending channel for a few more days.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $3,411 on March 29 but the bulls could not clear the obstacle at the 200-day SMA ($3,488). This indicates that bears have not yet given up and are attempting to stall the recovery at the 200-day SMA.

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ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains below $3,411, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($3,042). A strong rebound off this level will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.

The bulls will then again try to propel the price above the 200-day SMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally toward $4,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders may be rushing to the exit. That could pull the pair down to the 50-day SMA ($2,853).

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin’s (BNB) tight range trading between $425 and $445 has resolved to the upside, indicating that bulls have absorbed the supply and are trying to gain the upper hand.

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BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($409) and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that bulls are in control. If they sustain the price above $445, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($467) and later to $500.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $425, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then oscillate between $350 and $445 for a few more days.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.91 on March 28 but the bears did not allow the price to sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears are aggressively defending the zone between $0.91 and $1.

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XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to sustain the price above $0.86. If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could again rise to $0.91. A break and close above this level could open the doors for a possible rally to the psychological level at $1.

Conversely, if the price sustains below $0.86, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then drop to $0.70.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) is facing resistance at $1.26 as seen from the long wick on the candlestick on March 28 and 29. A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground.

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ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($1) and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel and sustain the price above $1.26, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($1.51) and thereafter rally to $1.60.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $1.15, the bears will try to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could sink the pair to $0.74.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $96 on March 28. Although the long wick on the day’s candlestick showed selling near $100, the bulls did not allow the price to break back below $96.

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LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buying resumed on March 29 and the bulls thrust the price above the all-time high at $105. If bulls sustain the price above $105, the buying momentum could pick up and the LUNA/USDT pair may rally to $115 and later to $125.

A minor negative is that the RSI is showing signs of forming a negative divergence. If the price breaks and sustains below $105, the pair could drop to $96. This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could aggravate selling. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($78).

SOL/USDT

After sustaining above $106 for the past two days, Solana (SOL) has risen above the overhead resistance at $122, indicating strong buying by the bulls.

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SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the price above $122, the SOL/USDT pair could start a new uptrend, which could reach the 200-day SMA ($150). This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome it, the rally could reach $180.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $106, it will suggest that the break above $122 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to the moving averages and remain stuck between $81 and $122 for a few more days.

Related: Bitcoin sentiment hits ‘greed’ in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullback

AVAX/USDT

The long wick on the candlestick of the past two days shows that bears are defending the level at $98. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed Avalanche (AVAX) to drop to the 20-day EMA ($85). This suggests that the traders are in no hurry to exit their positions.

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AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls are in control. If buyers thrust the price above the $98 to $100 resistance zone, the AVAX/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $120.

This positive view will invalidate in the short term if bears sink and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA ($81). Such a move will suggest that the pair could extend its stay inside the $65 to $98 range for a few more days.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been facing stiff resistance at $23 for the past three days but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears. This suggests that the bulls expect a break above the overhead resistance.

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DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($20) is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If bulls drive and sustain the price above $23, the DOT/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 200-day SMA ($29).

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum may have weakened. That could keep the pair range-bound between $16 and $23 for the next few days.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above $0.15 on March 28 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling at higher levels.

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DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $0.15, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may spend some more time inside the range between $0.17 and $0.10.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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