BTC rebounds from solid 2022 support
Bitcoin’s drop toward $37,000 yesterday was met with modest buying sentiment, leading to a price rebound above $39,000 on March 8. Interestingly, the upside retracement move originated around the same upward sloping trendline serving as an accumulation zone for traders in 2022.
Update after 2 months:
Too many retail investors on derivative exchanges could be a bearish signal.
The good news is that we have some whales who are accumulating $BTC in this price range of 35k-45k lately.
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) March 8, 2022
Rekt Capital spotted the successful retest of the trendline in his latest outlook, noting that the move could have Bitcoin climb above $43,100 next, providing it breaks above the green dashed diagonal resistance as shown in the chart below.
“Successful retest here and BTC could actually repeat last week’s move,” commented Rekt Capital on Tuesday.
Bitcoin to $30K?
The interim bullish outlook appeared as Bitcoin remained stuck inside a wide trading range — between $34,000 and $45,000 — all across Q1/2022. In doing so, BTC withstood extreme selloff pressure leveled up by the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, including rate hike fears and the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
— 32-34k key support, 43-47k key resistance
— Headline algo trading + correlation chop in between
— Mid-term bull. momentum case validated if 43-47k finally breaks (tested several times)
— Sideways = wait for extremes/boundaries to trade, not there yet pic.twitter.com/RsytMYajWf
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) March 8, 2022
Filbfilb, the cofounder of trading suite DecenTrader, also noted last weekend that “Bitcoin is rangebound on a macro level,” but its long-term structure suggests that it would break to the upside.
“In the immediate term, if the 50 DMA and 3-day level can prove to be supported, a retest of the $43k and high timeframe level could occur,” said Flibflib, adding that a further break above Bitcoin’s yearly pivot level of $48,000 would be “very significant and implicit of a fundamental change.”
But Rekt Capital’s upside setup revealed little possibilities of Bitcoin extending its rebound toward $48,000. That is because the setup resembles a bearish “ascending triangle” pattern, a consolidation range that typically sends the price further lower after its breakout move.
Notably, the profit target of an ascending triangle is calculated by measuring the maximum distance between the pattern’s two trendlines and by subtracting that from the breakout level.
The chart below assumes the breakout point to be anywhere between $37,500 and $45,000, meaning that a successful break below the triangle range could have Bitcoin drop to between $30,000 and $35,000.
Interestingly, both $30,000 and $35,000 had acted as solid support levels in recent history.
BTC bottoming out?
Flibflib also highlighted the $30,000-level for coinciding with the bottom of Bitcoin’s logarithmic regression bands — a “tried-and-tested” support level.
“The good news is that Bitcoin has less far to fall because it did not run up quite as hard,” the analyst asserted, adding:
“The confluence with this now sitting at the bottom of the weekly range is significant in our opinion and supports the idea that we will not see such a drawdown as in previous cycles.”
Nonetheless, an aggressive capitulation event near the $30,000-level could have Bitcoin fall refresh its downside target to the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA), a “catch-all level” marking the end of previous bearish cycles in March 2020 and December 2018.
The 200-week SMA sits around $20,000.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.